Thursday, April 17, 2014

Survivor Cagayan - S28 E08 "Bag of Tricks" Post episode comments


Tony's alliance was dominant...6 to 3.  Kass has made the transition to being a full member of his alliance.  She mentions that this is a game of lies and who she is outside of the game is not a reflection of how she plays the game.  Fair enough.  Perhaps when she was with the Brains alliance, even with the numerical superiority, she felt they were the weaker alliance.  Yet all the footage I had previously seen of her, before her big flip, showed that it would have been an emotional decision to get rid of Sarah ... and she did.  Now she is trying to say that it was a calculated decision.  That her flip against her own team was a strategic move.   I can forgive that she made a move to get into a better position...but this was an emotional decision...and I'm not sure that being a 'game of lies' includes being dishonest with yourself.  As far as I'm concerned; That is directly a reflection of "who she is outside the game". 

 
 
 
Tony, himself, is starting to get nervous.  The 4 on the opposing alliance voted to get him out.  This rattled his cage substantially.  There in lies the way to defeat him.  Make him think that he is losing control.  The more he believes he is losing control, the more desperate he will be to try to maintain it.  Ironically, the more desperate he will be for control, the bigger the target will be on his back.  The trick of this play is subtlety.  The one person that could pull it of is:
 
Spencer
 
 
The man who really deserves to win.  Tony has played the game well to this point but his is a style that attempts to directly manipulate those around him is reminiscent of Boston Rob, Russell Hanse, etc.  Tony is smart, perceptive and charming.  Sometimes his passion gets ahead of him and ends up saying things that give away his intent...or govern his actions in other non desired ways.  Spencer, however, is smart, disciplined, calm and as skilled with words as a master swordsman is with a rapier.   In a few words could highlight exactly the point he needs to make.  At tribal council in this episode, a couple of guys on Tony's alliance remarked that they felt their alliance was strong.  Spencer remarked that if "It seems strong from your perspective...maybe you are the next to go".  The person that said the "Alliance was strong" went home.  This one statement followed by that action left Tony's alliance in disarray wondering "Exactly how strong IS my position in the game".  Mission accomplished.  Well played, Spencer.  Now the alliance is 5 to 3.  If Kass flips back to the brains (which I actually doubt is even possible at this point) then it is even.  All Spencer has to do is warn his team that he's going to be making a target out of himself...and do so.  If he then plays his Idol, someone on Tony's alliance is going home. 
 
Screwing the brains alliance twice in a row has solidified Kass' position with Tony's alliance... and made her an outcast from her former one.  Spencer was burning a hole in the back of her head with his eyes.  Kass has shown that she is in deep with Tony's Alliance - Not that she can be trusted but that there is no way back for her at this point.  Her untrustworthiness and weakness in challenges means that people aren't taking her to be a threat.  She has no sway.  Given what I saw on her emotional decisions, I honestly don't think it was planned but her being a weak, untrustworthy pariah might get her to the end of the game. 
 
Well if the Devil had a profession on earth, you know it would be a lawyer.
 
If Tony is worried about Spencer having the idol, he will make all kinds of noise about how he is going to vote Spencer out.  When Spencer plays the idol, Tony's alliance will have revealed that they have voted for someone else.  The trick of that is to know that the more noise Tony makes about voting Spence out...the less likely he will be to do it.  Even still...then it would be an Alliance of 2... which is mere sacrifice for the 5 that would oppose it. 
 
 
Latasha was going to take LJ off and have a talk with him.  LJ 'Stood her up'.  He was worried about how it might look to Tony (who sees everything it seems)...going off with a member of the opposing alliance. 
 
 
Tony had a discussion with LJ about voting off Woo.  He went around his alliance and told everyone in it that LJ was thinking about voting off Woo.  He represented it like it was LJ's idea.  With those who came to LJ to get the straight story, he told it to them straight but it wasn't enough to keep the targets off of his back...and LJ got voted out.  It was 2 episodes ago that LJ sacrificed his own idol to keep Tony in the game after Tony played his to keep LJ in the game.  I guess that's the end of their Bromance.

 
LJ thought what they had together was special but Tony was worried about a (Former Beauty Tribe) separate alliance forming within his own alliance...and insecurity ruined things (as it does with most relationships)
 
 
Woo's ability to win challenges makes him a continued threat to Tony.  Even Kass is in a more secure position than this poor guy.  He had better realize soon that Tony is not his friend.  If he plays his cards right, he might switch to the brains alliance now and oust Tony now while he still has a chance.  If he waits...The Brains alliance will be too weak to help him.
 
 
 
 

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